COVID Cases by Country
Analysis of population based Data
Worldwide incidence of COVID-19 from Dec 31 to July 31
It is widely broadcast that the US has the highest number of cases of COVID-19 in the world at this time. Of course that is published, documented cases. Many cases are never identified and documented by public health and some countries are less forthright in publishing actual data than others. Furthermore, the USA is a huge country with nearly four million inhabitants. How does it compare to other countries on a per capita basis? Also, if we adjust for undercounting and under reporting, where do we stand?
After the list of countries is an analysis by BBC regarding international fatality rates.
There is a data set from the WHO that shows the daily total of each country that has reported, sometimes separating territories, such as counting Puerto Rico as not part of the United States for statistical purposes. The data includes cases per million. This is based on a nation’s listed number of inhabitants on Jan 1, 2020. Some countries such as Iceland and New Zealand (both isolated islands) have very exact numbers of inhabitants, in addition to citizens. Others, such as the US count citizens and those there on a visa, but do not count undocumented workers and their families, so the denominator could be off by about 4 Million. What percentage of a population has been tested is also variable. In the US there are epidemiologists that estimate that our total number of cases could be double, or even quadruple. Most asymptomatic individuals are never tested until recently (an exception is Klamath County, Oregon which secured a very large number of tests early); many individuals in New York at the peak were very symptomatic, but could not get tested and therefore were not counted.
A wealthy dictatorship can obtain a lot of testing material and force its entire population to be tested. China did a very tight, draconian lockdown and tested very widely, especially in Hubei Provence, so they have fairly accurate numbers, although they rarely tested anyone under the age of 10, and we now know that many children are asymptomatic carriers. There is also question as to whether China is reporting all of their known cases, or are they trying to show that they have gotten the virus under better control than reality? The recent surge in cases would indicate that Beijing is not trying to hide information, but the same cannot be said for each individual provincial committees of the National People’s Congress, and strangely all cases seem to be imported and not domestically acquired.
Going through all 15,000 lines of data has given me a lot of insight as to where the disease is spreading and at what time it was exponential within each country, when it was gotten under control (or not) and any second waves. More information could be analyzed on data in August, but there is a lot of information in just the first seven months. We know that the virus was spreading in a small part of Wuhan during 2019 and may have leaped to humans as early as October. (Wuhan is a huge, modern metropolis of 11 million and only a small section was affected, although the entire Province was tightly locked down). Yet no organized data set predates Dec 31, 2019, so we start there and get the first cases outside China often not documented by a country until several cases are present. Even Germany, with its very robust public health system and the primary developer of PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2, (even in China) was caught off guard and had a dozen cases in 9 cities all over the country before they realized they had any. Weeks later, they discovered that there had been a case in Munich a couple of weeks earlier.
The diseases started in central China and quickly the surrounding countries closed borders and started quarantining expats coming home. As a result, Vietnam has had very few cases and little spread within the country. Vietnam is of course a very strict dictatorship and wealthy enough to have ready access to testing. Vietnam and Thailand could be hiding numbers, as both are corrupt, but there are enough foreign medical individuals in those countries that any surge in deaths would be reported. So we can probably trust Vietnam and to some extent Thailand and even its neighbors. Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos have also had few cases. Partially this could be because of early lockdown and border control, but also in poor countries people live in open houses with fans, so essentially outdoors, these countries are rural and all public transportation was halted, traditionally no one shakes hands and even under normal conditions, people keep a respectful distance. Even before the pandemic, most people in these countries were wearing masks. This is probably a factor for low numbers in Hong Kong, Taiwan and relatively Singapore. South Korea had the most well-funded and aggressive public health department, even using police detectives, but East Asian countries have really not been hit hard, even China. China is a huge country and has over a billion inhabitants. It kept the virus mostly to a localized area, so even though they have a large number of cases, when divided by a billion, the per capita case load is low.
I reviewed 231 countries and territories. I was surprised at how current my knowledge of geography was, as there were only three I had not heard of and only another 5 that I had to look up to determine the neighbors. About 80% I knew enough about that I needed little research to understand the level of development, type of government and healthcare capacity (I have friends in many, and forty I have visited). I still used CIA and other data sources to come up with a likelihood that the data is accurate, or way off base.
The pandemic started in China, but spread from there first to Thailand, Japan and South Korea; but it was Italy, specifically the industrial center of Milan, where companies had ties to China, including Wuhan that had the first large outbreak. Retrospectively, it seems to have spread simultaneously to Iran, and into Afghanistan, but it is a rural country with limited travel, so it did not spread far in Afghanistan, as opposed to Teheran. From Italy it spread directly to its neighbors, Austria and France and from there rapidly to Spain. It did not spread to Greece and COVID is only now beginning to be a serious problem there. From one Austrian ski resort, it spread to Germany, Iceland and the Scandinavian countries. Unbeknownst to Germany, it had already started to spread in Munich from a visitor to Wuhan. As a result, Bavaria had much more COVID than the rest of Germany, made worse by locking down a week later than the rest of the country.
South Korea and the US had their first cases simultaneously, but it was a week later before the US had confirmed its first case. A few cases came to the US in Washington State and Silicon Valley, directly from Wuhan. Very shortly later it spread rapidly in New York and then the Northeast US, as cases were imported from Europe.
There are 30,000 Chinese in Djibouti, so this was one of the earliest countries in Africa to report cases and likely from there it spread through the Middle East, which has been the hardest hit of all parts of the world. South Africa has ties to China and Europe and it has spread very rapidly there and gradually is spreading across Africa.
Chile and Ecuador have ties to China, as do other countries in South America. They also have strong ties to New York City. Through these pathways, the virus has spread essentially unmitigated throughout the Americas, except Canada, which has shut its borders.
Spread in Eastern Europe has been more sporadic. It is suspected that Russia is the hardest hit, but data is considered suspect. Sweden elected initially not to lockdown, much to its regret. The UK did not lockdown soon enough or tight enough, so spread there has been much worse than most of the rest of Northern Europe, but its numbers are a little lower overall, as Scotland is included as part of the UK and Scotland has been much tighter in controlling the spread and the Scots have been generally more cooperative with restrictions than the English. Also the population of the UK is much larger than Belgium or Luxembourg. Countries with a small population need only a few cases to have a large number of “cases per million inhabitants.”
Some countries are very small (Andorra and Monaco) and a few cases can give a drastic per capita number, even if there have been no new cases in weeks (Vatican City, also listed in some sources as The Holy See). Other countries can tightly isolate (New Zealand and now Iceland and the Faroe Islands and the Antarctic Continent). Some countries have leaders that are highly respected by the populace, so cooperation is high: Germany, Taiwan, New Zealand, Iceland, Finland, Norway, and to some extent Canada (cooperation with public health, even if they have concerns with the Prime Minister). Some countries have authoritarian leaders who have pushed the economy in preference to public health: Brazil, Hungary, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and to some extent Poland, and early on Austria, and of course the US).
One country stands out: Slovakia. The government is not trusted and is known for corruption. Compared to its neighbors, Slovakia is poor and many work outside the country and commute on weekends. Yet, before the first case was documented, the public health department warned of the danger and the population, especially young people took it seriously. They have had amazingly few cases. Since they are not an island and only closed their borders for a brief time, have limited testing, and other resources, Slovakia has done remarkably well.
I focus on total cases as of July 31. Some countries had sudden early surges (Italy, Iceland) and subsequently got the spread under control (or nearly stopped in Iceland and the Isle of Man). Other countries did not institute control measures early (Sweden, UK, Belgium), had a surge of cases early on and few since. Other countries have only recently started seeing cases (most of Africa), but there are signs that COVID is now spreading exponentially. There are also countries that locked down early, stemmed the spread, but are now experiencing a second wave (Australia and the Maldives – some would say South Korea, but even their “second wave” is very small and limited to mostly members of a single church). So the ranking list I have made is not based on the risk of contagion or current spread of the virus in August 2020, but the total number of cases reported between Dec 31, 2019 and July 31, 2020.
The US makes the news as we document 1500 new cases per day and could be having over 300O. However, things are spreading much worse in Latin America and if the US can get the new cases under control (possible a vaccine, although that is unlikely) through better testing and contact tracing, the disease will still be raging through most of the Western Hemisphere and how will that not spread to the US, or significantly impact the US economy?
Currently in Africa the documented incidence is low in most countries, both because little testing is done, but the African continent is huge and it will take time to spread across thousands of kilometers. By March, the Middle East had seen huge numbers of cases and this spread across the top of Africa from Egypt to Morocco fairly quickly. South Africa was also hit hard, as were some islands with strong ties to Europe. The disease is going to spread completely across Africa and many countries are going to be devastated, however, at this time there is not the huge amount of travel across Africa like there is in Europe and Asia. Seeing what is going on in the rest of the world has made the public health leaders in many African countries especially cautious. So it is spreading slowly into the Sahel and the equatorial Africa. Many of these countries have very limited resources (Niger, Malawi), or very corrupt governments (Nigeria and Zimbabwe), or severe lack of clean water for much of the population (much of Uganda and Kenya). None, except Botswana, have a robust public health system and few can afford wide spread testing.
COVID-19 does not have the high death rate that the 1918 H1N1 pandemic flu had, but then we have better medical care, even in developing countries, and this virus is killing few under five, as opposed to pandemic flu, so Africa and much of the Middle East will not have huge fatalities. However, the virus spreads rapidly among those of working age and often leaves people unable to work for weeks or months. Therefore the economic consequences of what is happening in Latin America and will soon happen in Africa, will be horrendous and affect these economies for many years; which will in turn have a negative impact on the economies of the developed world.
1918-1919 pandemic flu may have killed 50 million worldwide. The world population then was 1.8 billion and it is estimated that one third of the world’s population was infected; the fatality rate was about 3%. Less sophisticated health care, so COVID is worse in total, but less devastating in that those hardest hit in 1918 were 20-40 year olds and those hardest hit now are over 60. Of note, the second wave hit much harder than the first and drove the economy of most countries into a downward spiral when an worldwide economic downturn was already occurring. Loss of so many workers during peak economic years was hard to recover from to some extent in the US and Western Europe, but severely added to Germany’s economic depression. In most Western countries there was a shortage of workers, but an abundance of capital, so the stock market began to rise, yet for a few years the poor got poorer. India suffered a huge population loss in 1919, but as a result, unemployment fell and workers were somewhat better off.
According to Tony Blair, “Covid-19 is the toughest practical challenge for government I have ever seen. To a greater or lesser degree every country in the world is grappling with the virus. For developed countries the need is to understand that eradication is not possible, only containment. Lockdown is a necessary step, but only mass testing of the population will isolate the asymptomatic cases (carriers).”
“It is clear what must be done, but the challenge of developed countries pales into insignificance beside the dilemma facing developing countries, and if the developing world fails, the consequence will reverberate around the world. If low and middle-income countries cannot deal with the crisis, we cannot control the disease globally.” (Quoted in Financial Times, Aug 10, 2020). Food shortages and recurrence of HIV, Malaria, TB, Ebola and malnutrition will occur. The international community must assist to shield the most vulnerable people in those countries that cannot lockdown, test and trace.
Below is a list of countries in order of reported per capita cases. The number following each country or territory is the cases per million. This can be confusing, as Vatican City actually only has 12 cases total, but few permanent residents. This also throws other small countries who have now gained control high on the list: Andorra, Luxembourg and Belgium. Likewise, countries like India that probably have a huge number of cases, but also a huge population end up way down the list: 103, but there poverty and limited testing means that the actual case load is horrific and recent hospital overloads in Delhi are indicating that the actual case load is many fold, or even a quantum level higher, but still, there are nearly a billion inhabitants. Following the number per million inhabitants is my best estimation of what the true number should be.
When you look at the first six countries, four are Middle East petroleum powerhouses. They have absolute dictatorships and a lot of wealth. They have been hit hard early, but have tested very widely. The fact that these four countries are among the world’s worst for COVID-19, would indicate that they are not trying to hide their numbers, but these are probably accurate. Nearby in Iran, it has been estimated, that they are reporting only at most 1/3 of cases.
Chile is number 4, but has limited testing ability. Add to that that about 40% of cases are asymptomatic; its numbers cannot be compared to the small wealthy countries that can test widely. Therefore it should rank #2, or maybe it is #1. It will be soon, as Qatar has few new cases and is very tightly controlled, whereas Santiago has large demonstrations in the streets and it is winter there, so people are forced closer together in buildings with limited air circulation. There is also a lot of poverty, although maybe not much more than parts of New York City. The US has not tested as highly as any other developed country, but still probably is way ahead of Panama. So even if we need to double or triple the numbers in the US, it is still below Chile, Panama and probably Qatar. Likely Peru has more cases per capita than the US, and the same is likely true of Brazil, with their huge favelas. The case load in the US is growing exponentially and in Qatar barely at all. So the US will soon pass Qatar, but as of July 31, I would rank the top five countries as Qatar, Chile, Peru, Brazil and the US as #5. Armenia might be ahead of the USA and possibly South Africa.
Israel is better able to test than its neighbors and the poorer Palestinian areas are counted separately. The Middle East has been hard hit, but new cases in Israel are lower now. Its position as #15 will likely drop and in reality, things are worse in neighboring Palestine, (especially Gaza) Jordan and Lebanon. One can only imagine what is happening, or soon to happen in Syria and Yemen.
Singapore is unusual among Southeast Asian countries, but seems to have stemmed the surge, as has Sweden, the highest ranking European Country of any size, now that they have abandoned their unsuccessful attempt at herd immunity. Among the top twenty are tiny countries like the Vatican, San Marino, Andorra and Luxembourg, all of which have limited new cases Among 21-30 are not surprisingly Belarus, Russia and Kyrgyzstan. The numbers are likely quite higher in these dictatorships and these three are probably in the top 20, likely above Israel and Sweden, but probably not South Africa.
Iceland was caught by surprise when many of Icelanders chose to go to the same Austrian ski resort that a week later spread cases all over Europe. They have a small population, so only a few infections resulted in a high per capita number, but like New Zealand, a cooperative citizenry and strong public health. Similar is the case in Ireland. The high ranking of Macedonia makes one wonder what is really happening in Greece. Puerto Rico has so far been better off than the rest of the US.
Looking at the next fifty shows that the disease is really spreading fastest in Latin America, although Italy is still ranked very high. There are many small countries and territories that are listed here, including the US Virgin Islands, but we see more of the Latin American countries. Switzerland is doing well, but is squeezed between Italy and France, both of which were hit hard early on. A few African countries appear starting at 44. Some are popular European vacation spots, but Gabon must be able to test better than its neighbors and might be more representative of central Africa.
The war torn regions of the world (parts of Africa, Middle East and in actuality the Northern Triangle of Central America and Venezuela) are going to soon be the epicenter of COVID-19. International Cooperation will do more to contain the spread of COVID than the current competition between many countries. The cooperation between Israel and the UAE is an example of how the pandemic may have some positive effects to lessen world tensions.
Once we get to those countries with less than 2000 cases per million inhabitants we are seeing some highly developed countries that have aggressively limited the spread of the virus, as well as countries that cannot test widely (India), or may have not yet been hit (Western Sahara, Ghana and Guinea-Bissau). Tajikistan should probably be in the first 100.
Note that the “World” is listed at 83. This median is of course not based on accurate data at all, as few countries are submitting accurate data.
At 139, Slovakia is nearly as good at keeping the case load low (and fatality rate) as well publicized South Korea (152) and New Zealand (157). It is not surprising that Japan (159) and some Caribbean Islands have done well. Japan has excellent public health, few cases and a large population (so large denominator and small numerator, like China). The islands, including Greenland can easily isolate.
At the bottom of the list are some very isolated places that have still kept the virus at bay and have no cases. Both parts of Samoa are in this category, which is a major achievement for a large and usually mobile population. All research stations on Antarctica have been protected and cruise ships prohibited. North Korea claims no entry by infected individuals and this could well be true. China acts as a protector for this most isolated dictatorship and China has kept the virus from spreading to the province adjacent to North Korea. Turkmenistan is an absolute dictatorship with no free press and little opportunity to investigate its claim. Its borders are not as tightly sealed as North Korea and its neighbors all have plenty of cases. Tehran is not that far from Ashgabat and its border with Uzbekistan is rather porous.
Country cases per million adjustment factors
- Qatar 38340 likely accurate
- Bahrain 23951 probably accurate
- San Marino 21097 probably accurate
- Chile 18494 at least double
- Kuwait 15578 likely accurate
- Oman 15501 likely accurate
- Vatican City 14833 very precise
- Panama 14663 probably double or triple
- United States 13579 at least double
- Armenia 12617 double or triple
- Peru 12358 probably 5 X
- Brazil 12279 probably 10 X
- Andorra 11932 quite accurate
- Singapore 8855 accurate
- Israel 8131 perhaps 50% higher
- South Africa 7931 likely 5-10 X
- Sweden 7931 accurate
- Saudi Arabia 7876 likely accurate
- Luxembourg 7223 accurate
- Belarus 7160 likely triple or more
- Maldives 6880 likely 50% higher or more
- Bolivia 6445 at least = Peru
- Dominican Republic 6261 probably at least double
- United Arab Emirates 6120 accurate
- Spain 6001 probably 20-30% higher
- Moldova 5936 likely 2-3 X
- Belgium 5859 very accurate
- Puerto Rico 5792 probably similar to rest of USA
- Russia 5718 accuracy doubtful
- Gibraltar 5550 precise
- Kyrgyzstan 5488 double or triple
- Iceland 5485 accurate
- Ireland 5251 probably 20% higher
- Djibouti 5142 could be double
- Macedonia 5099 probably 20% higher
- Colombia 5053 likely 10-25 X higher
- Portugal 4989 accurate
- Montenegro 4893 likely 40-50% higher
- Kazakhstan 4744 2-5 X higher
- Ecuador 4664 probably 5 X
- Faeroe Islands 4502 precise
- United Kingdom 4441 probably 20% higher
- Cape Verde 4268 possibly only 10-25% higher
- Kosovo 4193 likely 20-50% higher
- Honduras 4182 probably 2-3X, maybe 10 X
- Italy 4088 probably 20-30% higher
- Switzerland 4011 precise
- Sao Tome and Principe 3961 unknown, probably 2-5X
- Argentina 3960 at least double
- Isle of Man 3951 accurate
- Guernsey 3758 accurate
- Falkland Islands 3732 accurate
- Serbia 3705 probably 20-100% higher
- US Virgin Islands 3687 possibly 20-30% higher
- Iran 3590 at least 3-4 X, maybe 10+
- Bosnia /Herzegovina 3488 probably 20-100% higher
- Costa Rica 3394 likely 3-6 X
- Jersey 3314 accurate
- Gabon 3303 recently spreading, likely 2-5 X
- Netherlands 3149 accurate
- Mexico 3123 probably 5-20 X
- Cayman Islands 3088 precise
- Azerbaijan 3079 at least 3-4 X, maybe 5+
- Canada 3068 likely 20-30% higher
- Monaco 3057 accurate
- Iraq 3015 at least 3-4 X, maybe 10+
- Sint Maarten 2985 possibly 20-30% higher
- France 2858 possibly 20-30% higher
- Palestine 2834 probably 20-60% higher
- Suriname 2813 probably 20-100% higher
- Turkey 2726 probably 30-100% higher
- Guatemala 2725 probably 10-20 X
- Montserrat 2600 possibly 20-30% higher
- Romania 2578 probably 20-100% higher
- Turks & Caicos Islands 2557 probably 20-100% higher
- Bermuda 2505 possibly 20-30% higher
- El Salvador 2502 probably 10-20 X
- Germany 2481 accurate
- Denmark 2370 accurate
- Liechtenstein 2334 accurate
- Austria 2333 accurate
- Swaziland 2221 likely 3-8 X
- World 2219 unlikely
- Equatorial Guinea 2189 likely 3-6 X
- Guam 2109 accurate
- Malta 1844 accurate
- Albania 1806 likely 20-100% higher
- Norway 1692 accurate
- Bulgaria 1644 likely 20-70% higher
- Estonia 1546 accurate
- Ukraine 1545 doubtful (2-6X)
- Czech Republic 1526 possibly 20-50% higher
- Bangladesh 1426 5-20 X
- Mauritania 1348 unknown, likely 3-6 X
- Finland 1340 accurate
- Bahamas 1292 likely 20-100% higher
- Western Sahara 1282 5-20 X
- Pakistan 1260 5-20 X
- Cyprus 1207 likely 50-100% higher
- Croatia 1199 likely 20-70% higher
- Poland 1190 likely 50-200% higher
- India 1188 at least 5-40 X
- Seychelles 1159 2-20 X or more
- Ghana 1131 2-20 X or more
- Aruba 1124 likely 50-200% higher
- Guinea-Bissau 1007 likely 50-500% higher
- Slovenia 1004 maybe 20-70% higher
- Central African Republic 953 2-20 X or more
- Antigua and Barbuda 929 likely 50-200% higher
- Egypt 908 at least 3-4 X, maybe 10+
- Easter Island 865 tightly locked down, accurate
- Namibia 808 likely 4-8 X
- Tajikistan 772 possibly 2-6 X
- Lithuania 757 could be 20% higher
- Philippines 749 easily 3-8 X higher
- Northern Mariana Islands 730 likely 50-200% higher
- Uzbekistan 704 possibly 2-6 X
- Nepal 671 likely 50-200% higher
- Algeria 667 likely 50-400% higher
- Haiti 650 likely 4-8 X
- Cameroon 650 possibly 2-6 X
- Latvia 649 could be 20% higher
- Australia 639 could be 20-30% higher
- Morocco 630 likely 50-300% higher
- Venezuela 628 suspect 50-100 X
- Paraguay 623 suspect 10-20 X
- Lebanon 616 suspect 5-15 X
- Cote d'Ivoire 606 unknown, limited in the area, but limited capacity 2-6X
- Senegal 604 unknown, limited in the area, but limited capacity 2-6X
- Congo 580 unknown, limited in the area, but limited capacity 2-6X
- Hong Kong 579 could be 10-30% higher, or actually lower due to denominator
- Nicaragua 554 suspect 50-100 X
- Guinea 547 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-6X
- Guyana 470 small, isolated, poor likely 50-300% higher
- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 469 small, isolated, could be 20-50% higher
- Hungary 464 autocratic, but closed borders, 2-15X
- Comoros 435 isolated island, maybe double
- Greece 422 cases spiking, suspect 3-10 X
- Bonaire Sint Eustatius and Saba 420 could be 20-30% higher
- Slovakia 415 hard to believe, but early lockdown and trust in public health
- Libya 411 likely 50-500% higher
- Barbados 383 could be 20-100% higher
- Indonesia 382 could be 20-200% higher, but good public health
- Kenya 370 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Uruguay 346 limited testing, suspect 10-15 X
- Botswana 342 could be 20-200% higher, but good public health
- Madagascar 336 isolated, could be 20-400% higher
- Brunei 322 tight lockdown, but are they testing much? could be 20-200%+
- Saint Kitts and Nevis 320 could be 20-50% higher
- Georgia 290 likely 3-10 X
- Jamaica 289 isolated, poor, maybe correct, or 2-5X
- Lesotho 282 isolated, poor, probably 2-5X
- South Korea 278 precise
- Malaysia 275 could be 20-200% higher
- Mauritius 270 tight lockdown of small island, probably accurate
- British Virgin Islands 265 precise
- Sudan 261 country in disarray, likely 3-10 X
- New Zealand 251 precise
- Dominica 250 isolated and lockdown, but disrupted by hurricane
- Japan 248 large population, but excellent cooperation, maybe 10% +
- Zambia 247 isolated, poor, probably 2-5X
- Greenland 247 likely correct (14 cases)
- Liberia 233 isolated, poor, probably 2-5X, but little in the area
- Cuba 228 very isolated now, probably close, maybe 10-20%
- Sierra Leone 226 isolated, poor, probably 2-5X, but little in the area
- French Polynesia 221 tight lockdown of small islands, maybe 10-20%
- Grenada 213 small island, probably accurate World Bank support
- Malawi 208 isolated, poor, limited resources, chaos, maybe 2-5X
- Zimbabwe 208 total chaos, hospitals closing, probably 10-40 X, friend runs ICU in main hospital
- South Sudan 207 war torn, minimal services, probably 10-20 X
- Nigeria 207 crowded, no social structures, probably 10-50 X
- Anguilla 200 isolated island, 3 cases, precise
- Somalia 200 war torn, minimal services, probably 10-20 X
- Curacao 177 isolated island, probably accurate
- Rwanda 154 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Benin 146 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Saint Lucia 136 isolated island
- Gambia 135 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Bhutan 131 isolated, but likely 50-200% higher
- Sri Lanka 130 isolated, but limited resources, 2-20X
- Ethiopia 127 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Mali 124 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Tunisia 124 surrounded by high areas, government chaos 2-20X
- Belize 121 surrounded by high areas, but better government 50-500%
- Jordan 119 limited data, surrounded by high areas, suspect 2-10 X
- Trinidad and Tobago 117 able to isolate, but limited resources, 2-10 X
- Togo 112 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Democratic Republic of Congo 100 limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Mongolia 89 isolated, but likely 50-200% higher
- Eritrea 79 surrounded by high areas, limited resources, 2-50 X
- New Caledonia 77 isolated island, probably 10-20% higher
- China 61 draconian lockdown, huge population, might be correct
- Yemen 58 war torn, minimal services, probably 10-50 X
- Chad 57 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Burkina Faso 53 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Burundi 53 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Eswatini 53 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Cabo Verde 53 isolated island, probably 10-20% higher
- Reunion 53 isolated island, probably 10-20% higher
- Mayotte 53 isolated island, probably 10-20% higher
- Thailand 47 Strong lockdown, autocracy, maybe 10-100% higher
- Niger 47 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X, friend says diverse spread
- Syria 42 war torn, minimal services, probably 10-500 X
- Angola 33 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Burundi 33 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Fiji 30 isolated islands, probably 10-200% higher
- Uganda 25 surrounded by high areas, limited resources 2-30 X
- Taiwan 20 Strong lockdown, excellent cooperation, probably accurate
- Timor 18 isolated island, probably 10-20% higher
- Cambodia 14 Strong lockdown, limited resources, maybe 2-5X
- Tanzania 8.5 surrounded by high areas, limited resources 2-50 X
- Papua New Guinea 7.0 isolated, but likely 50-200% higher
- Mozambique 6.5 unknown, limited in area, but limited capacity 2-20X
- Myanmar 6.5 Strong lockdown, autocracy, maybe 10-500% higher
- Timor-Leste 6.5 isolated, but likely 50-200% higher
- Vietnam 5.3 Strong lockdown, autocracy, maybe 10-100% higher
- Laos 2.7 Strong lockdown, limited resources, maybe 2-5X
- Vanuatu 0 Tightly closed island
- North Korea probably
- Turkmenistan ?
- Solomon Islands Tightly closed islands
- Samoa *
- Kiribati Tightly closed island
- Federated States of Micronesia Tightly closed islands
- Tonga Tightly closed island
- Marshall Islands Tightly closed islands
- Palau Tightly closed island
- Tuvalu Tightly closed island
- Nauru Tightly closed island
- American Samoa *
- Antarctica (continent, not actually a country) very controlled entry, all cruises shut down
*both parts of this island agreed to block all travel early.
President Trump claims the country has one of the lowest death rates from the virus in the world.
He's also said excess deaths are significantly lower than elsewhere - that's the number of extra deaths above what would be expected.
But others say the US has been hit worse than other countries, pointing out it has the most recorded Covid deaths of any country in the world.
"More than 170,000 Americans have died - by far the worst performance of any nation on earth," Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden has said.
We've looked at three different ways you can measure the rate of Covid-19 deaths, two of which show that while the US is not the worst affected, it's among those most badly hit.
1. The number of excess deaths
First, there is no international standard for how you measure deaths, or their causes. And making comparisons is tricky as countries record deaths in different ways.
But experts say one of the most telling measures is how many extra deaths a country experiences above the number who would have been expected to die.
But different countries are testing to find coronavirus cases in different ways, meaning this is a hard comparison to make.
A low case fatality rate could mean that widespread testing identifies lots of mild cases who were unlikely to die in the first place.
3. Death rates per capita
The US has recorded the most deaths from coronavirus in the world, but it has a larger population than many other countries.
When you look at deaths per capita - as a proportion of each country's population - the US is no longer top of the list, but remains in the top 10 worst-hit countries.
10 countries with most coronavirus deaths per
capita (go to link to see graph)
The US has recorded more than 52 coronavirus deaths per 100,000 people - there are a number of countries that have recorded more.
The US continues to regularly report more than 1,000 new coronavirus deaths a day, which is one of the highest daily death rates per capita in the world, according to the UK-based Our World in Data website which compiles global figures for coronavirus.
However, there are important differences in how countries count coronavirus deaths, making exact comparisons difficult.
(copy and paste link)